conference – David South Consulting

Organised by the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD), Geneva, Switzerland. Held at the Palais des Nations.

Just as this chart showed at the time of the Global Financial Crisis, the countries in “The Ring of Fire” have experienced exceptional turbulence and turmoil in the years after the crisis. For example, the UK has had austerity budgets, a no-growth economy, Brexit and the ‘shock therapy’ of the COVID-19 pandemic. The US, on the other hand, has clashed with its allies, seen a new cold war emerge with rivals China and Russia, and experienced significant domestic unrest, culminating in the storming of its seat of Government, the Capitol.

Just as now (2021) 2009 was a year in which the questions revolved around receiving a vaccine (for H1N1) and how best to affirm a person’s identity and citizenship. Photo: David South

Iceland saw its banking system collapse during the Global Financial Crisis, sparking demonstrations (October 2008-2011) and the “Pots and Pans Revolution”. Photo: David South

A conference in Geneva struck a pessimistic note on the current global financial crisis and any hope for a new social and economic order. The conference asked “whether current policy reforms are conducive to a transformative social change or if they only reproduce the status quo.”

A March 2009 IMF report on the downturn’s affect on the Global South and developing countries found that “fluctuating commodity prices, high fuel costs, the rise in food prices in addition to a decrease in remittances, foreign direct investment and aid flow could mean an increase in the financing needs of low-income countries by at least US $25 billion.”

The presenters at the conference painted a picture of a robust neo-liberal economic order that is already in the process of dusting itself off from the crisis and restoring its dominance.

Bob Jessop, from the University of Lancaster, captured the paralysis of opposition to the neo-liberal order by saying “They are busy doing it and we are busy talking about it.”

To paraphrase philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, that which does not kill us makes us stronger. Neo-liberalism may in fact be strengthened by the crisis, according to presenters. It will evolve and take on new forms, they argued.

The world’s business elites have an enormous capacity to re-shape the rules of the economic game back in their favour. While the massive state support to the banking sector had led some to believe governments were restoring faith in public investments, in fact state support is seen as “timely, targeted and temporary.”

When asked about the future as the crisis passes and countries come out of recession, the presenters believed this was a short-term recovery, and that far worse economic crises would be coming in the next five to 10 years.

Andrew Martin Fischer, from the Institute for Social Studies at Erasmus University, believes the harmful effects of the bailouts will be pushed to the periphery over the next five to 10 years, harming the poor. He also believes a major financial crisis is brewing in China. He called ‘China the fault line in the future.’

The powerful, he pointed out, displaced the costs of their mistakes onto other people. Proponents of different approaches had missed the moment because they were not able to present off-the-shelf strategies that could be deployed in a crisis on short notice. Thus, they had left the field open to neo-liberal solutions.

The global crisis in the short-term has not been worse because of unprecedented global cooperation. Keynsian measures have been used to solve the crisis, but are also used to preserve Wall Street. Also, the enormous contribution of growth in China and India means there are other sources of wealth in the world than just the North.

Getting back to normal should not be what we are doing, the panellists concluded at the conference’s final session. Governments should look at new opportunities for social policy. The panellists were disturbed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen as part of the solution. This means deep cuts in public expenditure are coming. There will not be a trickle down of wealth and the imbalances from before the crisis will remain. In short, the system was not working before the crisis.

Some policy suggestions put forward included: rural income guarantees, managed migration to support development goals, making a gender perspective critical to development. Governments should take a preventive approach to tackle future crises. Unfortunately, it now seems no money is left to address these problems. Yet business as usual is not an option with so many inequalities and imbalances.

“This conference on the social and political consequences of crisis is a critical subject for debate at this juncture,” said UNRISD’s director, Dr. Sarah Cook. “We are now at a point where many countries, particularly in the North, are emerging out of the severe shock of immediate crisis. Discussions of alternative policies and institutional arrangements at national and global levels may become less urgent; the status quo is reasserting itself and the space for ideas and policies that offer the possibilities of more stable, sustainable and equitable development will quickly shrink.”

Session 1: Impacts, Coping Strategies and Livelihoods

Session 2: Social Policy: Country and Regional Perspectives

Session 3: Social Policy: Global Perspective

Session 4: Political Economy Dimensions of Crisis

Southern Innovator Magazine was developed from 2008-2010 in London, New York and Iceland by the United Nations in response to the Global Financial Crisis and was launched in 2011.

Business Insider has reproduced a fascinating presentation about the crisis put together by the French bank, Societe Generale (SocGen). The presentation can be found here: http://www.businessinsider.com/socgen-prepare-yourself-for-the-worst-case-scenario-2009-11#first-it-starts-with-sky-high-public-debt-1

From 1997 to 1999, I worked as the head of communications for the United Nations mission in Mongolia. The country was already experiencing a severe economic crisis as a result of its transition to free markets and democracy from the Soviet economic system. The scale of the economic collapse following the fall of communism was described at the time as the worst peacetime, post-WWII economic collapse. On top of this challenge, the Asian economic crisis erupted.

You can read the Mongolia Update 1998 book I wrote here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/20864541/Mongolia-Update-1998-Book. It shows how chaotic events are in the middle of a major crisis. Some of the key lessons we learned during this time include: 1) transparency: trust was critical and all our work was done under the full glare of public and media scrutiny, 2) action: with our existing budgets we made sure to keep doing and spending to hire people, 3) strategy: to encourage the growth of businesses and innovation, in particular the take-up of new information technologies.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5311-1052.

© David South Consulting 2021

Lamas Against AIDS

By David South

UB Post (Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia), November 5, 1997

Manila, Philippines – Since HIV is contracted through sex, the disease has always been a difficult subject for the world’s religious leaders. When there is sex to be discussed, no religion can do it without bringing up morality.

This moral debate about bedroom behaviour has tainted discussion of AIDS in many countries. At the extreme end of the spectrum, some evangelical Christian leaders in the US have painted AIDS as an apocalyptic disinfectant for humanity.

Not surprisingly, this attitude has not helped in educating the faithful that AIDS can happen to anyone and its victims should be treated like any other ill person.

The Philippine conference heard that the standoff between the world’s leaders and public health authorities must stop. Dr Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS, pointed to the numerous delegates from the world’s religions and called on others to follow their example.

“In Myanmar, the Myanmar Council of Churches, the YWCA and other community-based organizations have joined hands with local authorities, health workers and Buddhist groups for community-based prevention, care and support programmes,” he told the assembly.

“This is the best practice in action.”

Mongolian delegate Dr Altanchimeg thinks a similar approach could work in this country.

“Now every Mongolian goes to see lamas. It’s a good channel to advocate for AIDS education. In Thailand, lamas are very experienced at this. People believe in lamas.”

Like their colleagues in Thailand and Myanmar, Cambodian lamas have been in the forefront of AIDS education.

Lamas there use festivals and ceremonies to raise the issue.

You Chan, a 30-year-old lama from Tol Sophea Khoun monestary in Phnom Penh, likes to raise the issue delicately, by referring to diseases in Buddha’s time.

“I feel it is difficult to speak about sexual methods with a large audience – I will not speak to sexual methods.

“At first, it was very difficult. People would ask why a monk would say such things. But I tried and tried and the people understood who is helping them.

“My message to Mongolia’s lamas is this: you have a moral responsibility to educate the people about AIDS, that it is happening all around the world and there is no medicine to cure it.

“You have to take care in the name of Buddhism to help people in this world.”

You Chan teaches lamas at 15 temples in Cambodia, who pass the message along to other lamas and congregations.

Update: Interestingly, two decades after this story was written, it seems the other kind of llama’s antibodies can “neutralize a wide range of circulating HIV viruses”. From ScienceDaily: How llamas’ unusual antibodies might help in the fight against HIV/AIDS

More on HIV/AIDS:

https://davidsouthconsulting.org/2020/12/18/feds-call-for-aids-blood-system-inquiry-some-seniors-infected/

https://davidsouthconsulting.org/2017/08/15/mongolian-aids-bulletin/

https://davidsouthconsulting.org/2020/12/17/philippine-conference-tackles-asias-aids-crisis/

https://davidsouthconsulting.org/2022/10/31/rainforest-rubbers-save-lives/